Looking on the Good Side
You are probably aware that over the years I’ve been sending subscribers like you Newsletters, which mainly comment on the economy, as distinct from Opportunities newsletters, which summarise the investment opportunities we offer.
Well
I'm lookin' the world over
Looking far off into the east
And I see my baby comin'
She's walking with the village
beast
I feel a change comin' on
And the last part of the day's
already gone.
Bob Dylan - I Feel a Change Comin’ on
Well there is a change coming on. And it’s for the better.
You are probably aware that over the years I’ve been sending subscribers like
you Newsletters, which mainly comment on the
economy, as distinct from Opportunities newsletters, which summarise the
investment opportunities we offer.
Well looking back on my last Newsletter for 2021 - which was sent
during the uncertainty that had surrounded us all since the Covid19 arrival - I
see my opening paragraph includes the observation “it’s indeed a pleasure to see a new feeling of confidence
that accompanies the onset of Summer”.
So now that it’s the middle of winter what’s happening these days?
Well here’s an Official view. The Budget Policy
Statement shows for the June year just past Real GDP growth was a feeble 0.8%
compared with 5.1% in the previous year. But the good news is the forecast is
for 4.9% for 2023.
A journalist/commentator/stirrer I’ve always admired is Brian Easton, who has perfectly described the
current situation in New Zealand. Here’s his late June article in Pundit within which was his observation that “The overall data suggests that the New
Zealand economy has had some recovery since the Covid impact, but it is
sluggish – near stagnating”. Well to some extent I agree that’s
been the case, although it’s a bit industry specific.
Looking at the good side
But here’s what I believes a realistic view on the economy that appeared in a
recent newsletter from Tony Alexander.
In it he says. “We are being
bombarded with negative news on the economy and so many other things currently,
that business and consumer confidence levels have plunged to record or near
record lows.
“But be careful not to
over-extrapolate your despondency. Already developments are occurring to
produce better times - such as reduced prospects for high interest rates and a
low Kiwi dollar which is good for exports.
“In the Interest Rates section I
look at the solid falls in bank wholesale borrowing costs as the markets
embrace a view of US if not global recession. That's good for inflation and
implies monetary policies easing from late-2023.”
Investing
Other than the obvious caution always needed when investing, the New
Zealand economy is in good shape, with low unemployment rate. However while the
responses to the Offers TBK Capital has made available have not
changed over that period, I’ve noticed there was some “reluctance to commit”.
But hang on everyone its July now. Has anything happened that’s changed
people’s view? Well I’ve spoken to many of you over that period but nobody’s
been able to give me a rational answer.
So here’s my “survey”. This shows a couple of newsletters had an excellent
“opening rate” but a less than usual “conversion” to actual investment. So I’d
be very interested in your view about “investing” in our Offers generally, and
specifically now. All responses will be treated in confidence.
Meanwhile here’s a short summary of those currently available.
Retirement villages.
Well this one’s easy. These have a very experienced Promoter/Operator for whom
I have raised millions of dollar over the years.
Coming up are shares in a new Retirement Village at $250,000 each. This is an
investment – because of the structure of the Offer – that can be offset against
other source income you have. It is budgeted to return the $250,000 invested
tax free, plus an annual income of $90,000. How about that for a family trust?
Meanwhile, at the time of writing this, there are also a couple of shares in an
existing Retirement Village available, see my Opportunities newsletter here. Email me for further details.
SiteSoft
This Offer was successfully filled earlier this year. The plan now is to seek
listing of the company on the ASX. If that is of interest let me know and we’ll
make the introductions for you. I’ve done that in the past for TBK Capital
clients.
Icehouse
See my last newsletter on their Tech Fund sent few weeks ago.
The Icehouse Ventures Seed Fund III now has $29.5 million committed against its
$30 million target. This includes support from over 200 investors and family
offices investing between $50,000 and $2,000,000.
They anticipate a final close this month so this is the “last chance” reminder.
Wholesale Investor
My last newsletter on that business here. They have been in a share raising round
themselves. They have a very close relationship with TBK Capital and we have
raised money through them for our clients here on several occasions.
Email or call me if this company interests you as an investment, or as a way
for you to raise capital in Australia.
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Any reference above to
investment is not an offer of financial products that requires disclosure under
the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (Act) and is available only to wholesale
investors as defined by that Act. It is intended for distribution
only to selected people to whom, under the relevant laws, it can be lawfully
distributed. It cannot be distributed in any other jurisdiction, or to any
other people. It is not an offer or solicitations in any jurisdiction in which
such offers or solicitations are not authorised, or in which the person making
such offers or solicitations are not qualified to do so, or to any person to
whom it is unlawful to make such offers or solicitations. Any representation to
the contrary would be unlawful. No action has been taken by any person that
would permit a public offering in any jurisdiction where action for that
purpose would be required.
Cheers
John Paine B.Sc.,
Dip BIA
TBK Capital Limited
Level 10, 120 Albert Street
Auckland 1010, New Zealand
Phone +64 9 307 3257
Mobile +64 21 902 901
Email john.paine@tbkcapital.co.nz